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Abstract #60988 Published in IGR 17-1
How Many Visual Fields Are Required to Precisely Predict Future Test Results in Glaucoma Patients When Using Different Trend Analyses?
Taketani Y; Murata H; Fujino Y; Mayama C; Asaoka RInvestigative Ophthalmology and Visual Science 2015; 56: 4076-4082
PURPOSE: To evaluate the minimum number of visual field (VF) tests required to precisely predict future VF results using ordinary least squares linear regression (OLSLR), quadratic regression, exponential regression, logistic regression, and M-estimator robust regression model. METHODS: Series of 15 VFs (Humphrey Field Analyzer 24-2 SITA standard) were analyzed from 247 eyes of 155 open-angle glaucoma patients. Future point-wise (PW) VF results and mean VF sensitivities were predicted with varying numbers of VFs in each regression method. RESULTS: In PW-OLSLR, as expected, the minimum absolute prediction error was obtained using the maximum number of VFs in the regression (14 VFs); mean absolute prediction error was equal to 2.4 ± 0.9 dB. Ten VFs were required to reach the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the minimum absolute prediction error. Prediction errors associated with the exponential and quadratic regression models were significantly larger than those from PW-OLSLR, whereas errors from logistic regression were not significantly smaller than those from PW-OLSLR; however, the absolute prediction error from the M-estimator robust regression model was significantly smaller than those associated with PW-OLSLR (P < 0.01, paired Wilcoxon test). Like PW-OLSLR, 10 VFs were needed to obtain the minimum absolute prediction error of mean VF sensitivity, but there were no significant differences in errors using the different regression methods. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 10 VFs, are needed to achieve an accurate prediction of PW VF sensitivity and mean sensitivity. Prediction error of PW VF sensitivity can be significantly minimized using the M-estimator robust regression model compared with conventional OLSLR.
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Classification:
13.1 Prognostic factors (Part of: 13 Therapeutic prognosis and outcome)
6.6.2 Automated (Part of: 6 Clinical examination methods > 6.6 Visual field examination and other visual function tests)
