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Editors Selection IGR 8-4
Clinical glaucoma: OHT and risk
Comment by Erik Greve on:
15187 The probability of glaucoma from ocular hypertension determined by ophthalmologists in comparison to a risk calculator, Mansberger SL; Cioffi GA, Journal of Glaucoma, 2006; 15: 426-431
Risk and risk calculation bath in the light of attention now that risk calculators (RC) have become widely available. Do risk calculators have an advantage over the ophthalmologists' common sense? Mansberger and Cioffi (1165) asked 52 ophthalmologists (O) to estimate the risk of developing glaucoma in 5 years in 4 factitious OHT patients. The ophthalmologists were aware of the results of the OHTS. The ophthalmologists' results were compared to those of a risk calculator (see below).
| Pt# | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| O | 6.5% &plm; 8.4 / 1-50 | 30.6% &plm; 20.5 / 1-100 | 7.1% &plm; 5.1 / 0-30 | 21.1% &plm; 17.3 / 1-80 |
| RC | 13.7 | 53.8 | 5.1 | 41.9 |
1. There is a wide variety among the risk estimation of ophthalmologists. 2. There is a substantial difference between the ophthalmologists' estimates and the calculated riskThe authors concluded that: 1. There is a wide variety among the risk estimation of ophthalmologists; 2. There is a substantial difference between the ophthalmologists' estimates and the calculated risk. This is a neat, clever and important little study. It shows that if we all use the same risk calculator at least we will manage our patients based on the same risk estimate. The vital question remains: which calculator estimates the real risk. The answer will come.
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